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2015 car sales are expected to break 25 million mark

Industry news
2015/01/12 02:06
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On January 12th, China Association of Automobile Manufacturers released 2014 China's automobile production and sales volume exceeded 23 million, a record high in the world, and ranked first in the world for six consecutive years. The China Automobile Association predicts that the annual sales volume of Chinese cars in 2015 will be 25.13 million units, including exports of 860,000 units, with a growth rate of around 7%.

Shi Jianhua, deputy secretary-general of the China Automobile Association, pointed out that the rigid demand for automobiles still exists. However, the purchase restriction policies of some regions and cities will have an adverse impact on the healthy development of the automobile market.

In this regard, Jia Xinguang, chief analyst of China Automotive Industry Consulting and Development Corporation, said in an interview with the Securities Daily that "according to the growth rate of 7%, this year's domestic automobile production and sales will probably break through the level of 25 million. Now the domestic auto market can Divided into two parts, namely new demand and update demand, the new demand currently accounts for more important than the update demand, but the proportion of newer demand is gradually increasing. Taking Beijing as an example, in the new car consumption, Update requirements account for more than 60%."

Car renewal demand is rising steadily

For the whole year of 2014, China's automobile production and sales volume was 2,372,800 and 23,419,900 units, an increase of 7.3% and 6.9% year-on-year. The growth rate of production and sales decreased by 7.5 and 7 percentage points respectively compared with last year. Among them, automobile production and sales rebounded sharply in December, with a monthly output of 2,287,700 units, a 5.9% increase from the previous month. In the same month, a total of 2.4,700 vehicles were sold, an increase of 15.27% from the previous month and an increase of 12.93% year-on-year.

According to the forecast of the China Automobile Association, the estimated sales volume of passenger cars is 21.25 million, an increase of about 8%. Among them, car sales are expected to increase slightly, and the growth rate will continue to fall, with a growth rate of about 1%; while SUVs and MPVs will continue to be strong, with growth rates of 25% and 35% respectively. The overall growth rate of commercial vehicles is expected to be around 2.4%, of which the truck growth rate is about 1.3%, and the passenger car growth rate is about 6.5%.

Jia Xinguang also said that in the auto market, the market for auto renewal demand is more stable than the new demand market for automobiles. “The increase in the demand for new autos depends on the popularity of automobiles, and the steady increase in demand for autos is This year's car sales exceeded the basis of 25 million units."

It is worth noting that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a management opinion last year. By 2015, the average fuel consumption of passenger cars produced in China will fall to 6.9 liters/100 kilometers, and will further drop to 5.0 liters/100 kilometers in 2020. In order to promote the implementation of this goal, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has clarified a series of punishment measures, including public notification, suspension of new car declarations and the cessation of new capacity approval, etc., which is extremely harsh.

New energy sector continues to be hot

New energy vehicles are undoubtedly the hottest sector in 2014. With the government's comprehensive policy of supporting the development of new energy vehicles, the company's upgrading of products and the recognition of new energy vehicles, the new energy vehicles in 2014 have developed rapidly, with annual sales of 75,000 units, year-on-year. Growth of 324%.

Jia Xinguang said that the growth rate of new energy vehicles is so large that the previous base is too low. "In 2013, the sales of new energy vehicles was less than 20,000, which caused a high growth rate in 2014."

In Jia Xinguang's view, the popularity of the new energy auto sector is also inseparable from the stimulation of national policies. "The state's subsidies for the new energy auto sector have been very positive. Now it seems that before 2020, the country will be on new energy vehicles. Subsidies are given, so this also ensures that new energy vehicles will maintain rapid growth in the next few years."

The data shows that in the sales of new energy vehicles, pure electric vehicles sold 45,000 units, an increase of 208%; plug-in electric vehicles sold 30,000 units, an increase of 878%.

Jia Xinguang said that the development of pure electric vehicles is the main direction of the country's new energy vehicle strategy. However, due to the popularity of charging piles and battery prices, the current transition from plug-in hybrid vehicles to pure electric vehicles is still needed in China. In the next ten years or so, "in the next few years, the domestic market is still dominated by hybrid vehicles, which is consistent with the situation of foreign new energy vehicles. With the battery price problem and the continuous improvement of the performance of pure electric vehicles, pure electric vehicles will Gradually accepted by consumers and stabilized the automobile market."